Jasmine Revolution Clinging to China? No

On March 12, Wall Street Journal weekend published an article named "Is China Next?" written by Francis Fukuyama, an Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

In the article, Mr. Fukuyama agreed on a theory argued by Samuel Huntington noted in his classic book - "Political Order in Changing Societies" - that increasing levels of economic and social development often leads to coups, revolutions and military takeovers. Mr. Fukuyama argued that the theory has been proved by in recent toppled regimes in Tunisia and Egypt.

However, in the case of China, the recent probability of a burst of a similar Jasmine Revolution is close to zero. Mr. Fukuyama derived such a conclusion from the following arguments.

1. The growing middle class are gaining dramatic economic improvements from economic growth in China.

2. Central government in Beijing has been focusing on job creation and altering its policies to reduce income disparities.

3. Compared to dictatorships in the Middle East, a self-forced leadership turnover every decade in Communist Party ensures political innovations in Beijing.

4. The Internet censorship in China moderates social radicalism.

5. People's Liberation Army in China traditionally stands strong in its cohesiveness and loyalty towards the central government.